Arab Water Apocalypse, Now

 
By Salem Khalil

IDN-InDepth NewsAnalysis

BEIRUT (IDN) - "Water Apocalypse, Now" is the title that Najib Saab, secretary general of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED), chose for his recent analysis on regional water stress, in an attempt to wake up Arab regimes to the imminent water crisis their people are about to face. Saab is not however the sole horseman of such an apocalypse.

In fact, this has been the very conclusion reached by over 500 delegates from 52 countries, among them 30 ministers and heads of regional and international organisations, as well as 70 and Arab reporters, who gathered at the AFED annual meeting in Beirut on November 4-5, 2010.

A not-for-profit regional non-governmental organisation, grouping experts together with civil society, business community and media, to promote sound environmental policies and programmes across the region, AFED presented in the meeting its annual report on water, edited by former head of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), Dr. Mohamed El-Ashry.

AFED stresses the "urgent need for policy reforms," while stating water availability and needs, taking foremost facts into account, mainly that the Arab region is among the water-scarcest in the world.

BELOW SEVERE WATER STRESS

"Due to increase in population growth and bad management, the average annual per capita share is declining from below 1000 cubic meters now, already below the level of water scarcity, to below 500 cubic meters as early as 2015, defined as severe water stress", says the AFED report.

World average is 6500 cubic meters.

AFED recalls the fact that major water sources are from outside Arab borders or shared, and most available water resources are already developed. "As needs exceed availability, it is urgent to apply rational use of available water resources, and develop new sources, such as innovative desalination technologies."

To give an idea of the relevance attached to the imminent water crisis, world known experts, such as Egyptian American scientist Dr. Farouk El-Baz, actively participated in the event. He talked about locating possible ground-water sites in the desert by use of satellite images.

El-Baz worked with the U.S. National Space Agency (NASA) to assist in the planning of scientific exploration of the Moon, including the selection of landing sites for the Apollo missions and the training of astronauts in lunar observations and photography. Currently, El-Baz is Research Professor and Director of the Centre for Remote Sensing at Boston University.

WHAT DOES ALL THAT MEAN?

Impacted by the scientific findings regarding the water situation in the Arab region, participants in the Beirut conference endorsed a set of conclusions and recommendations (full text at http://mideastenvironment.apps01.yorku.ca/?p=1276).

First of all, they agreed with the AFED report that the state of water in Arab countries "is critical and demands immediate action."

"Prospects of severe water shortages are serious" under a business-as-usual scenario, which would contribute to reduced agricultural production, increased poverty, adverse public health outcomes, and more environmental degradation, all of which would gravely undermine the human development agenda that is the stated priority of every government in the region.

They also recognised that despite large sums of investments in Arab water infrastructure over the past few decades, the water sector in Arab states continues to suffer from a crisis, which manifests itself in multiple forms.

Some of these forms are the fact that safe sanitation and reliable water supply services are still lacking for millions, and over-extraction of groundwater has left aquifers depleted and at a risk of contamination, urban water supply and irrigation infrastructures perform poorly and inefficiently.

Other forms are that the average water availability is projected to continue its decrease below the severe water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per capita per year by 2015, dropping below 100 cubic meters in some countries, compared to a world average exceeding 6,000 cubic meters.

Due to high rates of population growth, freshwater availability per capita will continue to decrease, which demands more efficient use of water, cutting losses, increasing the ratio of water treatment and reuse, securing more crop per drop, and achieving a breakthrough in desalination technology to make it more widely accessible.

The conference also concurred with the AFED report that at the root of the Arab water crisis is a set of political and management shortcomings: water institutions are fragmented, water legal systems are deficient, public water budgets are constrained, and water policies are divorced from sound science.

At the same time, they said, water investments are poorly targeted, funding and regulations for pollution control are insufficient, controls over proper aquifer use are lacking, and water prices are artificially low.

WHAT TO DO?

"For the Arab water crisis to be dissipated, water reforms must address these and other shortcomings," they said.

Then the conference called upon Arab governments to take a series of measures.

One of these is to make a sustained effort "to introduce policy, institutional, and legal reforms to enable a shift from a culture limited to securing more supplies through expensive water development, to one which manages demand, by improving efficiency, cutting losses, and protecting water from overuse and pollution."

Another measure is to adopt "economic criteria" for enabling water efficiency and prioritising the allocation of the available supply of water resources among competing sectors.

"Governments are urged to introduce water tariffs that rationalise water use, achieve cost recovery in a gradual manner, and promote equity through targeted subsidies."

Decision makers were also called to "support new agricultural policies by offering economic incentives, research assistance, training, and public awareness campaigns to persuade farmers to improve irrigation efficiency, change cropping patterns, improve irrigation scheduling, and shift toward higher-value adding crops and agricultural activities."

PLANNING, LEGISLTATING

The Beirut conference also recommended governments to develop adaptation policies to climate change predicated on using saline water in agricultural production, developing new local crop varieties tolerant to aridity and drought conditions, and rehabilitating water harvesting systems.

The conference further stressed the importance of reorienting the role of state water authorities from that of a water provider to that of an effective regulator and planner, including establishing legal frameworks that enable private investments and public-private partnerships to provide clean water and safe sanitation, while maintaining transparency and accountability.

It urged the need for promotion, through a mix of economic incentives and publicly sponsored research programs, of opportunities for the private sector to assist in developing locally-based competitive desalination technologies, while encouraging the application of solar energy, was another reclamation.

STRATEGIES, FUNDS, MECHANISMS

The recommendations included commitments to national strategies for tapping the under-utilised potential of wastewater reclamation as well as grey-water recycling to augment Arab countries' water supply; investing in scientifically credible and policy-relevant research that addresses the practical problems of water management in Arab states, and enacting comprehensive national water legislation to address existing gaps in current laws.

The need to establish mechanisms to control and regulate water access, promote water use efficiency, enable pollution control regulations, establish protected areas vital to water resources, provide for land use planning, and institute enforceable penalties for violations that cause damage to water resources, appeared among the key recommendations, among several others.

APOCALYPSE, ANYWAY

The Beirut recommendations, however wise, do not differ much from similar expressions of goodwill and wishes to act, that usually come out of all and each world, regional or national conference dealing with human issues.

They seem, above all, not to alter the facts and contribute to heeding the warning that the AFED secretary general issued as recently as last June, in a critical analysis titled "Water Apocalypse, Now".

Najib Saab took the case of the Nile and the recent recurrent attempts to alter its water sharing historical accords. "Taking advantage of astounding Arab apathy, African countries of the Nile Basin met in the absence of Egypt and Sudan to agree on a plan for sharing the Nile water."

THE NILE RIVER

Ethiopia, Saab added, which is the source of 85 percent of the Blue Nile, is only able to utilise a small portion of this water for irrigation. Nevertheless, it is demanding the right to construct dams on the Nile for the generation of electricity, to be in turn exported to Europe.

"What is precarious is the notion of asking for a "fair share" from Nile water with the rights of selling it to other countries," the author asks.

"This move was instigated by Israel's offer to buy water from the source countries. Whereas the construction of the hydroelectric dams does not impact the quantity of water flowing to Sudan and Egypt in real terms, offering the Nile water on the market for sale as a commercial commodity would result in an indisputable disaster," Saab stressed.

The Nile crosses 10 countries before its downstream reaches the Nile Delta Mediterranean estuary. The White Nile originates from Lake Victoria between Kenya and Uganda while the Blue Nile originates from Ethiopia.

The two rivers meet in Sudan to merge in one large stream to Egypt. Around 90 percent of Nile water currently reaches Sudan and Egypt, which both have been given the right to veto any projects for the construction of dams or alteration of water use in upstream areas, through an agreement that was signed in 1929.

The countries that have met in Uganda (May 2010) have decided to establish a new joint authority for the management of the Nile, based on new guidelines.

"We do not have to wait for the implications of the Uganda agreements nor the impacts of climate change as Arabs are already in the heart of the water catastrophe," Saab alerts.

Official figures have until recently estimated the per capita share of water in Egypt to be 750 cubic meters per year in 2010, based on the assumption that the Nile flow is 55 billion-cubic meters.

However, "the amount of water actually reaching Egypt today does not exceed 44 billion cubic meters, reducing per capita share to no more than 600 cubic meters annually, 20 per cent lower than the official figure."

TIGRIS, EUPHRATES, JORDAN RIVER

Then AFED secretary general also referred to another key water source in the region, recalling that both "Iraq and Syria are subject to a drastic water deficit, due to sharp reductions in the flow from Turkey, where the Tigris and Euphrates originate."

In Jordan and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Saab reports, "water scarcity has reached dangerous levels, after Israel strengthened its grip on the Jordan River waters and stole a major portion of groundwater resources."

And Lebanon is losing its water due to mismanagement, pollution or simply wasting it in the sea.

MASS SUICIDE

The most recent water reports indicate that three Arab countries are the poorest in water availability in the world amongst 180 countries. Not only: there are 13 Arab countries in the list of the 19 water-poorest (full text at http://www.najibsaab.com/english/editordetails.asp?id=272).

Najib Saab warns "any delay to formulate and implement serious response to the water challenge corresponds to mass suicide. The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab doors, right now." (IDN-InDepthNews/08.11.2010)

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