Najib Saab, April 2023

The German car industry succeeded in amending the European Union's plan to ban the sale of cars running on internal combustion engines by 2035. Simultaneously, a new Dutch pro-farmers party is threatening to derail the government's plan for large reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector by 2030.

The political and military conflicts and economic downfalls afflicting the world overshadowed these two events. However, their far-reaching results will inevitably emerge soon, with repercussions on climate action and beyond. Policy makers must realize that ignoring to properly deal with these voices in a constructive manner threatens to delay climate and environmental action programs for decades. What is required is a positive dialogue with all constituents, and a willingness to amend policies in order to make them more responsive to environmental, social and economic realities, as this is the best option for combating emerging populist drifts.

The EU's Green Deal included banning the sale of any new cars that emit carbon after 2035, allowing only zero-carbon engines, which inevitably excludes all internal combustion engines. However, the Free Democratic Party, a member of the ruling coalition in Germany, succeeded in including a loophole: after a last-minute campaign by Germany, the EU agreed to exempt cars running on e-fuels from the Deal. Although burning these fuels emits carbon, proponents endorse them as a practical solution for a transitional phase, because they can replace fossil fuels used not only in cars, but in other applications also, such as heating appliances. Their response to the fact that using these types of fuels contradicts the goal of zero-carbon is that their net outcome is "carbon neutrality", as the carbon emitted when they are burnt is compensated by the carbon captured from processes to produce them. However, the challenge remains in imposing tight controls, because current conventional fuels can be used in the same internal combustion engines made for e-fuels. As fossil fuels will remain available to consumers in European markets for decades after 2035, to serve cars produced before that date, the only control will be decreasing the price of e-fuels to make them more competitive; this might not be feasible, as production of e-fuels is sophisticated and highly expensive.

Electro-fuels are a type of synthetic fuels, manufactured using captured carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide, together with hydrogen obtained from sustainable electricity sources such as wind and solar, and in some cases include nuclear. Those opposing e-fuels believe that they merely postpone the problem without solving it, as what is required is to reach "zero carbon emissions", not a mere neutral outcome. Zero-carbon can only be achieved by using electric or hydrogen-powered engines, rather than internal combustion, which, by its nature, generates carbon emissions. While electric cars operate on batteries that are charged from external sources, hydrogen engines operate on fuel cells placed in the car itself, which generate electricity as a result of the interaction of hydrogen with oxygen, with emissions limited to water residues.

Synthetic e-fuels are worth being seriously considered, as, if their use is combined with strict controls, they may help in a smooth transition to clean, zero-emissions energy. But the fact that major German car manufacturers are the main parties lobbying for them raises doubts about credibility and real intentions. These same companies, which pride themselves on producing some of the fastest cars in the world, have also been pushing for years to prevent a speed limit on German roads, to keep their cars a favorite among speed-loving drivers. To date, they have succeeded in imposing their will and preventing change, with the support of the same political parties that promote slogans of democracy and freedom, as if freedom is the right to die, to be killed on the roads, or to multiply carbon emissions. Driving at 120 km/h increases carbon emissions by 30 percent in comparison with 100 km/h, and multiplies with higher speeds surpassing 200 km/h on German highways (autobahn). Therefore, it is necessary to start setting a speed limit on German roads to prove the seriousness of dealing with environmental and climate issues, in addition to basic safety concerns. Otherwise, talk about the climate benefits of e-fuels will remain confined to public relations, which hides other goals than what it claims.

On the other side of the German border, where the Dutch government limited the speed to 100 km/h, the problem is different. The Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), which occupies only one seat in the Dutch House of Representatives, won the largest number of seats in the local councils last month. This gave BBB a strong impetus to their demand to delay the government's plans to tackle nitrogen emissions, including a significant cut in livestock and a reduction in intensive farming. Because methane and nitrogen, along with carbon dioxide, are two of the most powerful greenhouse gases, the Dutch government has put in place a program of fast reduction that it says is necessary to meet its climate targets, based on the EU timetable to which it has committed. This means converting thousands of farms, especially those that produce fodder and raise cows and pigs, to other environmentally-friendly agricultural activities. Even though they acknowledge climate risks, farmers are still calling for a much slower pace of action, not only for economic reasons but mainly to preserve a way of life, according to their proclamations.

The renewed strength of the farmers' party forced the Dutch government and the European Union to open the door to negotiations again. It is hoped though, that the negotiations will not be dominated by populist arguments on the farmers' side, or strict adherence to goals which might lack realism on the part of some factions in the Dutch government and the EU.

The situation is nonetheless not entirely bleak, as different voices also picked up. Some car companies in Germany, which have invested billions in electric engines, objected to extending the deadline for internal combustion engines beyond 2035, and demanded strict restrictions to prevent abuse of this exceptional measure. Shortly after passing the conditional exemption, EU countries reached an agreement to accelerate the transition to renewable energy, to 45 percent by 2030, a significant increase from the previously set target of 32 percent. On the other side of the Atlantic, California enacted a plan requiring that half of the trucks sold in 2035 be electric.

The main condition for the success of any measures to protect the environment and combat climate change is a radical change in consumption patterns. This is because the continuation of unrestrained consumer habits is certain to eliminate any benefits from cleaner production systems, whether by using renewable energy or e-fuels. Ultimately, if the choice is between lifestyle and life itself, drivers in Germany as well as farmers in the Netherlands, must opt for life.