The nuclear power option in Arab countries

Najib Saab

May 2013

The earthquake that struck the Iranian Bushehr province in April 2013 reminded us of the nuclear reactor at Bushehr, and raised concerns about possible radioactive leakages. Such fears were to be expected, just two years after the nuclear disaster caused by the tsunami in Fukushima. These concerns had not yet subsided when another more violent quake hit East Iran with tremors felt in the Arabian countries across the Gulf. Scenes of residents fleeing high-rise buildings and taking to the streets in panic in Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi were abounding in media.

Fears of radioactive leakage, whether caused by an operational accident, like in Chernobyl and Three Mile Island,or a natural disaster such as Fukushima's, are justified. Accidents do happen in all stages of the energy industry, upstream and downstream. But due to the complex nature of nuclear plants the impacts of any accident would be far deeper and wider than an oil spill incident or an explosion in a gas or oil plant. So the residents of the Arabian cities of the Gulf were not to blame for being terrified of the possibility of an accident at the Bushehr reactor on the opposite side, that would transmit radioactive material to the Arab cities through water and air, since pollution knows no boundaries.

These events revived the debate about nuclear energy in the Arab world. Most Arab countries have shown interest in acquiring nuclear energy, at various levels. Yet, many of them, such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar, suspended their nuclearprojects following the Fukushima disaster, while others, such as Jordan and Egypt, reconsidered their plans and returned the options to the drawing board.However, a third group, mainly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Morocco, are still pursuing their nuclear energy plans. Those plans range from signing power plant construction contracts to launching actual construction, as in the UAE, and announcing specific targets for scheduled nuclear powergeneration, as in Saudi Arabia. The nuclear power plants to be established in Saudi Arabia are targeted to start generating electricity from two nuclear plantsin 2023 and gradually increasetoproduce20 percent of total power generation by 2032. The Saudi plan to build two nuclear plants annually between 2024 and 2032 is considered by many to be political wishful thinking, although it is supported by substantial financing and heavily depends on vast outsourcing.

Arab countries opting for nuclear energy are of two categories: the first group constitutes oil-exporting countries, such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Algeria. These countries consider the nuclear option an opportunity for diversifying income sources and enriching the energy mix. It should be noted that as much as 40 percent of oil production in these countries is used locally for power generation and seawater desalination. Using nuclear power for electricity generation will allow them to increase export oil and secure better positions in the energy markets,long after the depletion of fossil fuels. On the other hand, non-oil producing countries that aspire to have nuclear energy, such as Jordan and Morocco, consider the nuclear optionas a way out of their energy crisis, especially since some of these countries have stocks of uranium. Both groups similarly believe that the possession of nuclear technology promotes scientific research and securesa sort of prestige and higher standing in the international arena.

It is worth mentioning that the Arab states with the highest nuclear commitments, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria, have at the same time the highest commitments with respect to renewable energy sources, notably solar energy targets. Saudi Arabia announced a plan to produce 41 Gigawatts from solar energy by 2032, the most ambitious renewable energy target ever. The UAE is investing billions in renewable energy through MASDAR. Morocco and Algeria are at the heart of DESERTEC, the initiative designed to generate solar electricitynot only for domestic use but also for export to Europe.These countries believe that the incorporation of nuclear technology into the energy mix provides an additional measure of energy security alongside stabilizing supplies. Proponents say that storage of solar electric power to use overnight, for example, is still an expensive process that can be supported by nuclear energy.

Energy security, in the context of nuclear power, varies among different groups of countries. While countries that have the right to enrich uranium locally can claim a certain level of supply security, the same does not apply to others, including Arab countries. There are restrictions that prevent those from enriching uranium locally, and impose bans on importing it enriched, even if they have uranium ores as in Jordan, Morocco and Algeria. It should be noted, in this respect, that the United States has warned that it would prevent Jordan from using American nuclear technology and would impose wide-ranging sanctions if the country opted to enrich uranium locally.

Investing in nuclear technology to promote scientific research and support development requires as a prerequisite the development of national capabilities for scientific research, particularly local human resources. But some Arab countries have actually chosen the easy path to save time, by outsourcing the whole process, from design, construction, supply of equipment and material, to the manpower needed to operate and maintain security of plants.Although these countries have included in their nuclear plans training programs for national manpower, it is to be seen how fast this could be implemented.

Scientific research, industrial development and security of energy supplies are justifiable arguments for looking into nuclear energy options. However, the most prominent argument for supporting nuclear energy options in recent years has been that it helps in controlling climate change, because it does not discharge greenhouse gases (GHGs). Proponents of nuclear power say that the world may well find no other alternative to drastically reduce emissions and curb climate change- even just for a bridging period until renewable energy gains more solid grounds. But environmental impacts of nuclear power are not limited to climate change. There has not yet been developed any permanent solution for theultimate disposal of wastes of nuclear reactors. Although the nuclear industry is confident a solution should be found sometime, the operative word to explain the situation is still temporary storage, with the risks of radioactive leakages due to natural disasters and / or human errors. The same applies for calamities in nuclear reactors, resulting from earthquakes, floods and operating errors, noting that the bigger the reactors the greater the related risks. A key question is how prepared Arab countries are for such a scale of disasters? Therefore, all phases of the nuclear cycle should be taken into consideration: construction and operation of reactors, storage and disposal of wastes, and impacts of possible catastrophes.

Fast and immense increase in demand on electricity is often cited as an immediate reason which justifies the nuclear power drive. Prior to funding considerable investments for the construction of new power plants, regardless of the technology to be adopted, be it based on fossil fuels, renewable energy or nuclear, Arab countries must first manage energy demand and improve efficiency. The per capita energy intensity in the Arab Region is twice the world average; energy consumption per capita reaches six times the world average in some GCC countries. The main causes of this situation are the low efficiency levels and the lack of incentives that should encourage saving, mainly as a result of subsidies. After all, increasing production, as the only response to waste and over-consumption, is like supplying an addict with more drugs rather than helping him to quit the damaging habit.

Renewable sources, particularly solar energy, remain the cheapest and most secure option for the Arab countries. The cost of solar power generation is rapidly decreasing and shall be almost equivalent to the costs of fossil fuel-based power generation if subsidies are lifted.  Arabs do have solar resources even in much bigger and more sustainable reserves than oil. Both oil and sun can be under national control, and do not have to be imported with restrictions, like enriched uranium.

Serious analysis of the cost, risk and safety of nuclear power generation relative to alternative sources should inform government decisions and long-term commitments.