Figures do not make facts

By Najib Saab

January 2013

The findings of the 2012 Annual Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED), Survival Options and Ecological Footprint of Arab Countries, were as stunning and alarming as the footprint image that covered the report's front page as well as the backdrop of the plenary hall at AFED's annual conference.

Arabs' demand on life-supporting goods and services amounts to twice the resources that their ecosystems can provide and regenerate. This is a sheer plunder of the reserves needed for future generations. Current development programs are mostly unsustainable attempts that over-exploit available resources, without any real planning for the rationalization of consumption or development of alternative resources which can avert depletion of the natural capital. The AFED report demonstrates, through facts and figures, that if all humans live like the average resident of some rich Arab countries, nearly 7 planets would be required to satisfy their needs. By contrast, if everyone lives like an average person in Yemen or some other poor Arab countries, humans would demand only one half of the planet Earth. However, Yemen cannot be taken as a model, since the average Yemeni per capita share of natural resources and services is far below the minimum requirement for a decent quality of life. On the other hand, over-consumption in other parts of the Arab region is increasingly amplifying the constraints on natural resources. Ibn Khaldoun, the renowned Arab sociologist, pointed out 650 years ago that human progress is limited by nature's constraints. It is true that human endeavors, innovation and technological progress may help improve man's use of resources, yet growth has limits dictated by nature.

Responding to the AFED report's call for setting limits to growth, an Arab official commented that deciding the level of growth is a national right and a matter of state sovereignty. If the implementation of development plans requires the recruitment of millions of foreign workers, the indefinite importation of materials and equipment, and the depletion of the available local resources, so let it be. This is why the AFED report rings the alarm bell, and calls for setting sustainable development targets to avoid depletion of resources and maintain nature's regenerative capacity. After all, growth that squanders the natural capital defies the basic principles of real progress and cannot be sustained.

A head of an environment authority in one Arab country raised doubts about some figures of AFED's Ecological Footprint report, claiming that a portion of the goods imported by his country, which have a very high ecological footprint, is re-exported, and therefore should not be deducted from the calculations and added to the figures of the country of final destination. Yet a revision of the figures, exactly as the contestant suggested, turned out slight variations in numbers, but still the concerned country remained in the same critical position, as having one of the highest footprints per capita in the world. Thus the real issue is not mathematical, limited to manipulating some figures, plus or minus; it is about stopping squandering nature and addressing the dire environmental degradation that these figures reflect. When the facts change, the figures will automatically change, and not the other way round. Altering figures through creative calculation cannot improve the situation, but might merely serve as a temporary painkiller.

Some expressed dismay at the choice of the foot image for the cover of the report and the backdrop of the conference hall, suggesting that this might be insulting. They thought that a fingerprint, instead, could have been more appropriate. This actually served the purpose of the report, which was meant to shock. They explained that man walks on his feet, not hands; feet are the most direct link between man and earth. If we were addressing a default on financial obligation, we might have chosen the image of a thumb, because when receiving a bank loan we use our hands for signing or thumb for affixing a fingerprint. If we fail to repay such loan, we reschedule the debt by signing on new commitments. Governments try to cover insolvency by printing additional banknotes.  In contrast, when we plunder the natural capital we use our feet to sign the ‘loan' of resources. This is actually a theft of reserves belonging to the future generations, because governments and central banks are unable to ‘print' new issues of air, water and earth to cover nature's insolvency, as they print new banknotes.

The diversity of natural and human resources in the Arab region offers a foundation for survival and renewal. But this demands regional cooperation and innovative resource management and development. Until then, the footprint shall be waved in the face of the squanderers of resources, hoping that they will recognize the gravity of the situation.